Why Counting Illegals on the Census Threatens American Democracy

May 15, 2024

By Dale Wilcox

The counting of illegal aliens as part of the decennial U.S. Census is one of the most under-discussed aspects of illegal immigration, but it represents a major threat to the future of American democracy.

As currently constituted, the census counts everyone currently living in the U.S., regardless of their citizenship or legal status. The results establish the number of electoral votes and congressional seats allocated to each state. So, while illegal aliens and all noncitizens are legally banned from voting in federal elections, they are still allowed to legally impact elections through the census. Given that more than seven million illegal aliens have entered the U.S. over the past three years, we can expect illegal aliens to have an outsized influenced on both the electoral college and the House of Representatives after the counting of the next census occurs in 2030. This is a crisis of democracyas well as a crisis of sovereignty.

Even if one buys into the dubious notion that all of the many millions of illegal aliens who currently reside in the country are following the law and not voting in federal elections, their presence in the country could still potentially be decisive in elections. Take the state of New Jersey, for example. A recent study from the Garden State found that almost 1-in-10 New Jersey residents are illegal aliens. This means that nearly 1/10^th of New Jersey’s electoral college votes and 1/10^th of its House representation after 2030 could be the result of illegal immigration, and New Jersey is not even a border state. Imagine the impact illegal immigration may have on the census results in states like California, Arizona, or Texas.

All of this violates the sacred principle that American elections must be decided by American citizens and American citizens only. Illegal aliens may not be a voting bloc, but they are a large bloc with growing influence on the outcome of American elections.

The Trump Administration attempted to remedy this problem by adding a citizenship question to the 2020 Census, but were ultimately foiled when the Supreme Court, by a 5-4 vote, sided with anti-border activists in blocking the question from appearing on that year’s census. This ill-founded ruling guaranteed that states across the country would have their number of congressional seats and electoral college votes inflated or deflated by illegal immigration for the duration of the 2020s.

According to a 2020  study, Texas, Florida, and California each have one more congressional seat than they would have if illegal aliens had not been counted in the most recent census, while Alabama, Minnesota, and Ohio each have one less seat as a result. This may not sound like much, but it is not too difficult to imagine control of Congress or the presidency coming down to a handful of seats or electoral college votes, in which case illegal aliens will have proven decisive in deciding the composition of the U.S. government.

This is an obvious problem because the U.S. government is supposed to represent the interests of U.S. citizens. If members of Congress or even a president know they are reliant on illegal aliens for their position, their priorities will be much different as a result. This is not compatible with the core tenets of American democracy, and the situation will grow direr if illegal aliens are allowed to be counted in the next census. The illegal alien population has skyrocketed in the last few years, so the effects of illegal immigration on the allocation of Congressional seats and Electoral College votes would be much greater in 2030 than they were in 2020.

Seeking to head this problem off, the House passed legislation earlier this month that would mandate a citizenship question be added to the 2030 census, but the bill has little chance of becoming law. Anti-borders interests who have facilitated the crisis at the border understand they have the ability to dramatically remake the American electorate without changing a single law. Without any changes to the current census regime, illegal aliens will have a significant impact on U.S. elections for generations to come, even if not a single one of them were to vote.

Counting illegal aliens on the census threatens to upend U.S. elections, makes a mockery of our system of government, and threatens the sovereignty of American citizens. The next census must ensure the U.S. government is accountable only to U.S. citizens, and no one else.

Dale L. Wilcox is executive director and general counsel for the Immigration Reform Law Institute, a public interest law firm working to defend the rights and interests of the American people from the negative effects of mass migration.

Also published at AMAC, May 15, 2024.